Foresight Skills Development

Welcome to CENFACS’ Online Diary!

17 November 2021

 

Post No. 222

 

 

The Week’s Contents

 

• The 12th Women and Children FIRST Development Day – In Focus on 19/11/2021: Foresight Skills Development

• 2021 “A la une” (Autumn Leaves of Action for the Upkeep of the Nature in Existence) Themed Activity and Action No. 6 from Week beginning 15/11/2021: Invasive Species, Pests and Crop Diseases

• Skills to Build Forward Better – Skills Focus from Wednesday 17/11/2021: Analytical Skills

 

… And much more!

 

 

 

Key Messages

 

• The 12th Women and Children FIRST Development Day – In Focus on 19/11/2021: Foresight Skills Development

 

The Development Day is a day that is annually held on 19 November to raise awareness and learn about development issues that women and children of our community face.  It is also a day to re-communicate our poverty reduction message about women and children matters while exploring ways of solving these issues.  It is finally a day to re-engage with new and old stakeholders on these matters.

As announced last week, the 12th Women and Children FIRST Development Day (in short: Development Day) will prolong our Reflection Day of last April as we will be celebrating and thinking of Foresight Skills to help improve our capacity to predict and forecast future risks and crises (similar to the coronavirus) as well as plan actions based on improved knowledge, estimations and prospect.  Additionally, by dealing with skills, this year’s Development Day will resonate with November month of Skills Development within CENFACS.

Just to remind you that our Virtual Reflection of last April focused on Ring-fencing Protection for Women and Children to Become More Resilient and Vigilant in face of Future Risks and Crises.   Foresight Skills, which are the theme of our Development Day, is one of the many ways of ring-fencing protection for them.

In addition, we changed the organisation of our Development Day last year.  This was due to COVID-19 and lockdowns.  We could not hold in-person event like we did in 2019.  This year, we will be working in hybrid way by splitting the two aspects of this year’s Development Day, which are: Thinking and Celebration.  It will be about celebrating the good results of poverty reduction and exploring the future through Foresight Skills.

Details about this hybrid way of working are given under the Main Development section of this post, where you can also find other details about the Development Day.

 

 

• 2021 “A la une” (Autumn Leaves of Action for the Upkeep of the Nature in Existence) Themed Activity and Action No. 6 from Week beginning 15/11/2021: Invasive Species, Pests and Crop Diseases

 

In this 6th Action, we are going to deal with three types of sub-action against what can cause harms to Crop Wild Relatives.  Harms to them can be caused by invasive species, pests and diseases.  To reduce and or eliminate these harms, actions need to be taken.

 

• • Action against invasive species

 

Before thinking of any types of action against invasive species, it is better to understand what they mean. 

 

• • • Basic understanding of invasive species

 

The Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation written by Chris Park (1) defines invasive species as

“Aggressive introduced species which spreads and dominates its new location, competing with and often replacing native species and proving difficult to remove” (p. 238)

The website ‘oceanservice.noao,gov’ (2) states that

“Invasive Species can harm both the natural resources in an ecosystem as well as threaten human use of these resources… Invasive Species are capable of causing extinctions of native plants and animals, reducing biodiversity, competing with native organisms for limited resources, and altering habitats”.

In the context of “A la uneCampaign theme and the sub-theme of Safeguard of Crop Wild Relatives, what we are interested in is actions to stop or reduce threats of extinctions that can be caused by invasive species to Crop Wild Relatives and other plants.  

 

• • • Actions against Invasive Species

 

On the website of the National History Museum (3), it says that

“Migrating and non-native species do not necessarily become invasive.  However, when they become invasive, it must be dealt with”.

To deal with invasive species, the following actions can be taken:

 

√ Stop or regulate human activities that spread invasive species (activities such as moving plants, ornamental plants, around the world for various reasons)

√ Deal with the consequences of climate change that cause species migration

√ Stop threats to native plant species

√ Differently manage plant and animal habitats to cope with invasive species and threats

√ Redesign conservation goals to deal with the problems caused by invasive species

√ Keep the control of both old and new species, including their data and inventory

√ Inform the relevant conservation agencies about any invasive species one may spot

Etc.

 

Briefly, stopping the threats of extinctions to Crop Wild Relatives from Invasive Species concern the native, non-native and introduced species.

 

• • Action against pests

 

• • • What is pest?

 

Pest is “a destructive insect or other animal that attacks crops, livestock, etc.,” according to bing.com (4).  For example, white fly attacks tomatoes.

Because pests can attack and destroy Crop Wild Relatives, actions need to be taken to deal with them and their attacks. 

 

• • • Actions against pests

 

Actions could include activities to restrict or reduce or eliminate pests or organisms (such as action against oak tree pest) that directly or indirectly cause extinctions to Crop Wild Relatives.

For example in Tigray (in Ethiopia), there is a lack of equipment, sprayers and pesticides to effectively control Desert Locust infestation and other agricultural diseases.  Taking actions to control Desert Locust infestation can be life-saving gift for the peoples of Tigray.

 

• • Action against crop diseases

 

• • • What is crop disease?

 

Like humans and animals, plants and crops can be affected by diseases.   The Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation (op. cit.) defines disease as

“Any disorder in the normal function of an organism, which can be genetic but often caused by pathogenic bacteria, fungi, or viruses” (p. 123)

According to the ‘colors-newyork.com’ (5) website,

“Crop disease involves any harmful deviation or alteration from the normal functioning of the physiological processes”

To heal or stop crop diseases, actions are required.

 

• • • Actions against crop diseases

 

Actions can be taken to deal with factors that cause crop diseases.  These actions can be directed against factors such as insects, poor soil nutrition content, toxic chemicals, etc.  These actions will deal with the offending pathogen or environmental causes of crop diseases.   This kind of actions will be against leaf diseases, root diseases and seed diseases.

 

To sum up, “A la uneCampaign is about actions, not words only.   Whether it is about invasive species or pests or crop diseases, what we are interested in is action to deal with them so that the Safeguard of Crop Wild Relatives can be a reality, not a matter of theory only.  There is more that can be done to make this reality happen.

To support this 6th Action relating to the Safeguard of Crop Wild Relatives and the entire “A la une” Campaign, please contact CENFACS.

 

 

 

 

• Skills to Build Forward Better – Skills Focus from Wednesday 17/11/2021: Analytical Skills

 

In our presentation of the skills to build forward better, we have now reached the level of skills to analyse our build-forward-better project or programme.  It is at this level that one can look into the amount of data generated via the implementation of their build-forward-better project.  Using their analytical knowledge and skills, they can identify any meaningful information and study the patterns and trends about this information.

To navigate these analytical skills, we are going to give a basic understanding of them and their types. 

 

• • What do we mean by analytical skills?

 

There are countless definitions of analytical skills within the analytics literature.  To simplify the matter, we have selected the definition given by the website ‘corporatefinanceinstitute.com’ (6), which is:

“Analytical skills refer to an individual’s ability to identify a problem, investigate to find out relevant facts, and find a logical solution”.

The same website provides four types of analytical skills, which are: communication, creativity, critical thinking and data analytics.

 

• • Types of analytical skills to analyse your build-forward-better project or programme

 

• • • Communication skills

 

These are the skills to effectively communicate the analysis.

For example, one of our users can communicate to the CENFACS Community the analysis they conducted about their build-forward-better project from the COVID-19.

 

• • • Creative skills

 

These are the skills to think creatively.

For example, one of our community members can creatively think about the stages and steps they would like to take in their process of building forward better from the adverse impacts of the coronavirus and the legacies of lockdowns.

 

• • • Critical thinking skills

 

These are the skills relating to objective analysis.

For example, through advice sessions, one of the advisees can objectively disclose after critically thought if they can afford their cost of building forward better.

 

• • • Data analytics skills

 

These are the skills to analyse large volumes of data and identify patterns and trends.

For example, one of our beneficiaries can share with us their experience in manning a large amount of data from the execution of their plan to build forward better from COVID-19.   

In short, the above named analytical skills will help us as a community to handle the analytical process of building forward better together from the legacies of the coronavirus and lockdowns.

For those who need help from CENFACS about the analytical skills they need in order to analyse their build-forward-better project, they can let us know. Together we can conduct a needs assessment and explore the analytical skills they need in order to better analyse their project.

To get further insight into Skills Development Month at CENFACS, please continue to read our weekly posts.  To support the Skills Development Month, please contact CENFACS.

 

 

 

Extra Messages

 

• Review of 2020 Peace Appeal for the Horn of Africa Region

 

• • What this appeal was about

 

It was about supporting the victims of continuing insecurity and displaced persons who were fleeing fighting in Tigray which would have expanded beyond it to reach other parts of the Horn of Africa Region.  This appeal was about helping to prevent the Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis to create further poverty and humanitarian crisis for the innocent civilian people of the Horn of Africa Region.

 

• • Why this appeal is under review 

 

The appeal is under review due to increasing humanitarian needs in Tigray, including emergency shelter, food, safe and drinking water, medicine and health services, dignity and hygiene kits for women and protection services.

According to the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (7),

“An estimated of 2.7 million children in northern Ethiopia are affected by destroyed or damaged schools or by internally displaced persons sheltering in schools.  It is estimated that 80 per cent of essential medication is no longer available in Tigray while most health facilities are not functional due to damage and lack of supplies”.

Although the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and other agencies are working to meet the needs on the ground, there are still many gaps to be filled in Tigray. 

So, this week we are reviewing the Tigray appeal to assess if the main goal of the 2020 appeal has been met and if not what else we can do. 

 

• • Contacting CENFACS about this Appeal review

 

You can contact CENFACS to discuss or talk about this appeal review at http://cenfacs.org.uk/contact-us/

 

 

 

 

• E-workshop: Spending Limit

 

This is an e-workshop to enable interested people/households to help them reduce poverty linked to the lack of matching skills to set up a spending limit in their household accounts.  The e-workshop will empower them to work out their in-comings (total income) for a given period and set the overall spending limit so that they do not overspend or run into a permanent income deficit. 

The e-workshop will as well address the thorny problem of permanent income shortages experienced by ordinary households.  In doing so, the e-workshop will help them to lay down the foundations for protection against the adverse consequences of spending limit default. 

Those who may be interested in this e-workshop, they need to contact CENFACS.

 

 

 

• Be.Africa e-debates Forest Economy and Poverty Reduction in Africa

 

How to make forests to remain and be reliable as a driver for poverty reduction in Africa in the world of phasing down coal-power generation

 

Since many Centuries, humans have been using forest resources and products (e.g. woods) in their daily life.  Natural forest resources and products help in many ways in reducing poverty and enhancing sustainable development. 

As the global climate world has agreed, via the Glasgow Climate Pact, to phase down coal-power generation and the use of coal as a source of energy, as well as restriction on other fossil fuels; CENFACS’ be.Africa will e-debate the following questions:

How much can we rely on forest economy and its products to service the reduction poverty in Africa?  

Is there any affordable alternative source of energy for those living in poverty and heavily relying on coal in Africa in the ever changing global energy development landscape?

What help can they get in the process of phasing down the coal in order to meet their daily energy needs?

To tell CENFACS’ be.Africa Forum what you think, just contact CENFACS on this site.

 

 

La journée de développement des femmes et enfants d’abord (en bref: journée du développement) prolongera notre journée de réflexion d’avril dernier.

Nous célébrerons nos résultats acquis en matière de réduction de la pauvreté et penserons aux compétences prospectives.

Les compétences prospectives nous aideront à améliorer notre capacité à prévoir et à mieux faire face aux risques et crises futurs comme la pandémie de coronavirus.

L’occasion nous permettra aussi de planifier des actions basées sur l’amélioration des connaissances, des moyens, des estimations et des perspectives.

De plus, en traitant des compétences, la journée du développement de cette année résonnera avec le mois de novembre du développement des compétences au sein du CENFACS.

Pour plus d’informations, veuillez contacter le CENFACS.

 

 

Main Development

 

The 12th Women and Children FIRST Development Day – In Focus on 19/11/2021: Foresight Skills Development

 

To help those who might be interested in the Development Day to prepare themselves; we have assembled the following items:

the meaning of foresight, future risks and crises our community may face, the types of skills we need in order to respond to those risks and crises, how this year’s Development Day is organised and can help us to mitigate these risks and crises, and a timeline about our previous Development Days.

 

• • What is foresight?

 

To define foresight, we are going to refer to the website foresight.com (8) which states the following:

“Foresight is simply the act of looking to and thinking about the future”. 

According to Foresight.com (op. cit.), foresight, which is a critical personal and social skill, is also an activity that can be amateur or professional, trained or untrained.  Through foresight, one can predict, create and lead the future for themselves, their family, their community, their organisation, etc.

Foresight.com (op. cit.) distinguishes four domains or fields in terms of professional foresight, which are:  personal foresight, organisational foresight, global foresight and universal foresight.

In the context of our Development Day, we shall more focus on personal and community foresight than other types of foresight.  However, this focus does not exclude us to touch upon the other types of foresight in order to help us to help better reduce poverty and enhance sustainable development.

What we are as well and mostly interested in is the practice of foresight which helps to combine the science and art of foresight to work (like a futurist, forecaster, advisor and climate activist, etc.) on issues we are concerned with (such as future risks and crises).

 

• • Future risks and crises that women and children may face

 

To simplify the matter, we are going to refer the 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s annual analysis – the Global Risks Report 2021 (9).  In its report, the Forum categorises risks into the following types: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological ones.  On the page 12 of this report, there are 10 top risks that are likely to happen and 10 top risks that may impact over the course of the next ten years. 

Additionally, it is indicated in this report that further to the survey respondents’ results, the 10 top global risks by likelihood (from unlikely to very likely to occur over the course of the next ten years) are:

∝ extreme weather 

∝ climate action failure 

∝ human environmental damage 

∝ infectious diseases 

∝ biodiversity loss 

∝ digital power concentration 

∝ digital inequality 

∝ interstate relations fracture 

∝ cyber-security failure 

∝ livelihood crises

For the same survey respondents’ results, the 10 top global risks by impact (from minimal to catastrophic impact to occur over the course of the next ten years) are: 

∝ infectious diseases

∝ climate action failure 

∝ weapons of mass destruction 

∝ biodiversity loss 

∝ natural resource  

∝ human environmental damage 

∝ livelihood crises 

∝ extreme weather 

∝ debt crisis 

∝ IT infrastructure breakdown

If any of these risks happen, they can affect the quality of life and well-being of women and children, especially the poor ones.  Because of that, we can look to and think about them as well as actions to protect women and children from these future risks. 

For example, if there is a natural resource crisis, how can women and children foresee it or know it is coming and protect themselves?  Another example, if the COVID-19 debt becomes a crisis, how could women and children think of the consequences of COVID-19 debt fallout?

The Development Day can help to shine lights or simply have some thoughts and feelings about the answer on these questions.

In the light of these future risks, there is therefore a need to improve and or develop Foresight Skills so that our community can better read the future.  What are those Foresight Skills we need in order to think about the future?

 

• • Foresight Skills

 

The 2021 Development Day is about Foresight Skills.  What are the Foresight Skills we need? 

All depends on the type and level of foresight one would like to embark upon.  If we refer again to refer to the foresight models given by foresight.com (op. cit.), we would mention three core Foresight Skills or thinking styles which are:

a) Thinking about probable futures (that is, predictable futures)

b) Thinking about possible futures (that is, unpredictable futures)

c) Thinking about preferable futures (that is, preferred futures)

 

Foresight Skills or thinking styles will help to determine what probable or possible or preferable crises and/or risks which may happen to women and children in our community.

In addition to the above three core or fundamental skills or styles, one can have the following ones:

d) Skills to deal with plausible futures (that is, possible or preferable futures)

e) Skills to deal with expected futures (that is, highly preferable or probable)

f) Skills to deal with wildcards (that is, low or probable events)

 

These additional skills or thinking styles will also help to determine what possible or highly preferable or probable crises and/or risks which may happen to women and children in our community.  In this thinking exercise, one needs to use developmental and evolutionary processes.  However, thinking exercise may not be enough unless one put those styles of thinking to adapt and mitigate risks and crises.

 

• • Mitigating future risks and crises

 

Since our capacity to stop these crises and risks to happen is limited or null, we shall instead think of probable or possible or preferable actions (depending on which crisis or risk) to take either to reduce or nullify the severity of any adverse impacts on women and children in our community and on our system of poverty reduction. 

Taking actions means preparedness in one’s mind set and the way one runs their life.  People could remember when the coronavirus broke out the majority of people was not prepared or not enough prepared at least in their mind set.   Foresight Skills development can help the community to avoid the mistakes of the past.  And the community with women and children in it can anticipate, create and manage future risks and crises.

 

• • How this year’s Development Day will be organised

 

The Development Day will be organised in two parts:  Thinking and Celebration.

 

• • • Thinking part

 

Since we are going to work in hybrid way, the participants to the Thinking part can remotely (from their home or office or anywhere else) share their thoughts on the Day using their Foresight Skills and any other skills about the future crises and risks, particularly what they can do if any of these crises and risks become a reality.

 

• • • Celebratory part

 

Potential Development Day celebrators could group themselves in a small COVID-19 secure working space (let say a group made up of 2 to 10 people including children) to share and recognise the value of poverty reduction and sustainable development amongst women and children.  They can make up a COVID-19 Secure Development Day Small Group (CSDDSG).

 

• • • • What is a COVID-19 Secure Development Day Small Group (CSDDSG)

 

A CSDDSG is a number of two to ten adults including children gathered in a COVID-19 secure space to share their poverty reduction and sustainable development experiences and wins in an informal and unstructured way.  Like in a discussion focus group, the group can systematically collect important information shared for impact monitoring and evaluation, learning and development purposes.  The group can as well seize the outputs or outcomes achieved.  Finally, the group can report to the community their experience of taking part in a CSDDSG.  

 

• • • Have queries or enquiries for the Development Day 2021

 

The above are the main items that will feature this year’s Development Day.  For any queries or enquiries about them, please do not to hesitate to contact CENFACS.

At the end of the Main Development section of this post, we have appended a timeline of CENFACS Development Day milestones

Wishing you a SUCCESSFUL, HEALTHY AND SAFE Development Day 2021!

_________

 

References

 

(1) Park C., (2010), Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation, Oxford University Press, Oxford & New York

(2) https://oceanservice.noaa,gov/facts/invasive.html (accessed in November 2021)

(3) National History Museum at https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/what-are-invasive-species.html (accessed in November 2021)

(4) www.bing.com (accessed in November 2021)

(5) https://colors-newyork.com/what-is-a-crop-disease (accessed in November 2021)

(6) https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resource/careers/soft-skills/analytical-skills/ (accessed in November 2021)

(7) United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (2021), Ethiopia – Northern Ethiopia Humanitarian Update, Situation Report at https://report.unocha.org/en/country/ethiopia (accessed in November 2021)

(8) https://www.foresightguide.com/what-is-foresight/ (accessed in November 2021)

(9) World Economic Forum (2021), The Global Risks Report 2021, 16th Edition, Insight report

At https://www.weforum.org/global-risks

_________

 

Appendix

 

Women and Children FIRST Development Day (WCFDD) Timeline: 2010 to 2020

 

Since its inception in 2010, the WCFDD provides an opportunity and scope to communicate CENFACS’ anti-poverty work/message and the need to develop new ideas and proposals, and improve practices to enable us to enhance the quality of life of multi-dimensionally-deprived women/mothers and children.  The following are the milestones so far for WCFDD

In 2010, the WCFDD was devoted to AWARENESS on SUSTAINABLE ACCESS TO & PROTECTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES AND ENERGIES

In 2011CENFACS’ WCFDD tackled the challenging issue of BARRIERS TO POVERTY REDUCTION, with a special emphasis on one particular way of overcoming them, which is participation.  Women & Children’s Participation was looked at within the context of Race in the Road to Poverty Reduction.

In 2012, our Development Day in Putting Women and Children FIRST went further with the sub-theme of participation as it was organised around the theme of IMPROVING WOMEN’S AND CHILDREN’S PARTICIPATION IN THE RACE TO REDUCE POVERTY. 

In 2013WCFDD at CENFACS extended and deepened the idea of more and better participation by focussing on Infrastructures for Women’s and Children’s contribution to poverty relief.  The theme for 2013 was “INFRASTRUCTURES FOR A POSITIVE ECONOMY TO REDUCE POVERTY”.

In 2014, we guesstimated and compared the cost for acting to the cost for inaction to reduce poverty.  The theme of COSTING DOING NOTHING FOR POVERTY RELIEF improves our understanding on an early prevention that helps reduce costs and avoid escalating or detrimental effects for poor Women and Children.

In 2015, WCFDD was dedicated to MAKING THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WORK FOR WOMEN & CHILDREN (W&C).  This was the local community response from the W&C of CENFACS to the 2030 Global Agenda and Goals for Sustainable Development.

In 2016, the theme for our Development Day was ENSURING HEALTHY LIVES AND PROMOTING WELL-BEING FOR WOMEN & CHILDREN.  This was the continuation of 2015 Development Day.  Ensure-Healthy-Lives-and-Promote-Well-being is itself Goal no.3 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.  One day of development thoughts does not make the 2030 Agenda works as we need more times and days. But it helped to look at Goal 3 (G3) as both global and local concept, G3 as a practical response and G3 as Protection for W&C in the CENFACS’ Year of Protections

In 2017, ENDING POVERTY IN ALL ITS FORMS EVERYWHERE FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN was our working theme for the WCFDD

In 2018, we thought ways of working together to come out of the linear model that consists of make, use and dispose goods and resources; to embrace the CIRCULAR ECONOMY

In 2019, we discussed and put ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY into practice via three specific activities which were: advice, art and design, and clothes recycling as an example to end clothing poverty.

In 2020, we formalised and structured CORONAVIRUS TALKS BUBBLE by giving it purpose and objectives so that participants to it can measure its impact or output on their lives.

 

NoteFor your information,

 

3W (What Women Want) is a CENFACS support network scheme to enhance the lives of multi-dimensionally deprived women/mothers and families.

PPS (Peace, Protection & Sustainability) is a CENFACS child and environmental protection programme to support multi-dimensionally vulnerable children, young people and families

W&CSDP (Women & Children Sustainable Development projects) – a CENFACS amalgamation of 3W and PPS projects

 

Help CENFACS keep the Poverty Relief work going this year.

We do our work on a very small budget and on a voluntary basis.  Making a donation will show us you value our work and support CENFACS’ work, which is currently offered as a free service.

One could consider a recurring donation to CENFACS in the future.

Donate to support CENFACS!

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Thank you for visiting CENFACS website and reading this post.

Thank you as well to those who made or make comments about our weekly posts.

We look forward to receiving your regular visits and continuing support throughout 2021 and beyond.

With many thanks.